THIS election will be as much about pollsters’ predictions as policy. 

Knocking on many doors over the last 10 days it is clear this is a “change” election. Nearly unanimously voters want a change from this Conservative government. The common opinion is “they’ve had their time”. 

But they are less sure about who to vote for. They are less concerned about a candidate’s policies and more about which party is best placed to win in their constituency. So, it looks like the pollsters and tactical voting sites will have a key bearing on the outcome of this election. 

This is worrying because there are significant questions as to the accuracy of the “advice” these organisations are offering. Electoral Calculus, who are much pointed to, say themselves their predictions are “based on the law of averages... usually about 50 seats are incorrect”. They also admit they don’t look in detail at the local situation in a constituency saying of local circumstances “[they] cannot be included, as predictions are driven by national levels of support”. They do however have an aura of reliability which is clearly misplaced. 

So, in choosing who to support I would urge voters to look carefully at what actually has happened in their constituency over the last 18 months where there are 20 Liberal Democrat councillors, 15 Conservative and zero Labour councillors which reflects Labour as the party of the city.   

Certainly in Central Devon the hard evidence of votes cast over the last 18 months (where Liberal Democrats have scored sensational wins with up to 52 per cent of the vote) would suggest that those wanting change should best back the Liberal Democrat candidate, Mark Wooding, as the agent for that change. 

Cllr Steve Keable (Lib Dem, Taw Vale) 

Mid Devon District Council Cabinet Member for Planning and Economic Regeneration 

Lapford