THE LATEST YouGov MRP poll has again predicted Labour will win a landslide victory at the next general election – but will not claim Central Devon despite big Tory losses. 

The new figures suggest Labour would win more than 400 seats nationwide, and come close to winning Central Devon with the Conservatives just three percentage points ahead. 

Central Devon, which extends from Crediton to Okehampton and Ashburton, has always been Tory-held since it was created in 2010.

New Central Devon boundaries
New Central Devon constituency boundaries (Boundary Commission/ Google)

Its current MP Mel Stride holds a big 17,721-strong majority and won over 55 per cent of the vote in 2019. 

At the next election, the latest YouGov MRP poll predicts the Conservatives will get just 33 per cent of the vote in the constituency, while Labour would take home 30 per cent, the Liberal Democrats 16 per cent, the Greens nine per cent and Reform UK 12 per cent. 

Central Devon vote share change chart
Central Devon vote share change chart (Will Goddard, Crediton Courier)

The new poll is YouGov’s second MRP projection this year and comes after it interviewed 18,761 British adults between March 7 and March 27.  

MRP stands for “multilevel regression with poststratification” and is the same statistical method that correctly predicted the 2017 and 2019 UK general elections – including Labour’s shock victory in Canterbury in 2017. 

Elsewhere in Devon, the latest poll predicts Exeter and Plymouth Sutton and Devonport will stay Labour, and that Labour will unseat Johnny Mercer in Plymouth Moor View.  

In Torbay, it forecasts the Liberal Democrats will narrowly defeat the Conservatives. 

The rest of the county would stay Tory, including several new constituencies such as Torridge and Tavistock. 

The Central Devon constituency boundaries will be adjusted slightly at the next election. To the east, Cowley and Brampford Speke will be lost to Exmouth and Exeter East, and a chunk of land west of Okehampton will be lost to Torridge and Tavistock. To the south, the constituency will gain a small slice of the Newton Abbot seat. 

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has not yet called an election, but it must be held no later than January 28 next year. 

The candidates for Central Devon so far are incumbent Conservative MP Mel Stride and Mark Wooding for the Liberal Democrats.